{"id":5061,"date":"2026-11-09T21:48:40","date_gmt":"2026-11-09T21:48:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061"},"modified":"2026-11-09T21:48:41","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T21:48:41","slug":"que-controla-las-crecientes-de-los-rios-en-los-andes-colombianos-evidencia-desde-el-departamento-del-cauca","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 controla las crecientes de los r\u00edos en los Andes colombianos? Evidencia desde el departamento del Cauca"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Por Oscar Felipe Agredo-Campuzano* y Andrea Marcela Bola\u00f1os-Rodr\u00edguez*<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Los Andes tropicales presentan una notable diversidad clim\u00e1tica, topogr\u00e1fica e hidrol\u00f3gica que condiciona la generaci\u00f3n de crecientes. Sus fuertes pendientes, la variabilidad de las precipitaciones y la limitada disponibilidad de registros hidrom\u00e9tricos dificultan la estimaci\u00f3n de caudales m\u00e1ximos, informaci\u00f3n fundamental para el dise\u00f1o de infraestructura, la planificaci\u00f3n territorial y la gesti\u00f3n del riesgo de inundaciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ante este desaf\u00edo, desarrollamos una investigaci\u00f3n en el departamento del Cauca, Colombia, bajo el enfoque de Predicci\u00f3n en Cuencas No Instrumentadas (Prediction in Ungauged Basins, PUB). El estudio comprendi\u00f3 inicialmente 38 cuencas hidrogr\u00e1ficas, distribuidas en aproximadamente 14.915 km\u00b2, equivalentes al 50,9 % del territorio departamental. A partir de registros hidrometeorol\u00f3gicos y caracter\u00edsticas f\u00edsicas de las cuencas, analizamos los factores que controlan los caudales m\u00e1ximos asociados a periodos de retorno entre 2,33 y 500 a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"725\" src=\"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F-1024x725.png\" alt=\"Figura 1. Localizaci\u00f3n del departamento del Cauca en el suroccidente de Colombia y distribuci\u00f3n espacial las 86 estaciones meteorol\u00f3gicas y 38 estaciones hidrol\u00f3gicas. El mapa muestra la delimitaci\u00f3n de las 38 cuencas hidrogr\u00e1ficas que conforman el \u00e1rea de investigaci\u00f3n.\" class=\"wp-image-5060\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F-1024x725.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F-300x212.png 300w, https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F-768x544.png 768w, https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F.png 1350w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Figura 1. Localizaci\u00f3n del departamento del Cauca en el suroccidente de Colombia y distribuci\u00f3n espacial las 86 estaciones meteorol\u00f3gicas y 38 estaciones hidrol\u00f3gicas. El mapa muestra la delimitaci\u00f3n de las 38 cuencas hidrogr\u00e1ficas que conforman el \u00e1rea de investigaci\u00f3n.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mediante t\u00e9cnicas de regresi\u00f3n estad\u00edstica y regionalizaci\u00f3n hidrol\u00f3gica, desarrollamos ecuaciones que relacionan los caudales m\u00e1ximos con atributos de las cuencas. Tras identificar observaciones altamente influyentes, construimos modelos regionales con 30 cuencas y evaluamos su capacidad predictiva mediante LOOCV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Los resultados evidenciaron que el \u00e1rea de drenaje constituye el principal factor explicativo de los caudales m\u00e1ximos regionales, mientras que la precipitaci\u00f3n adquiere mayor relevancia para crecientes de periodos de retorno elevados. La incorporaci\u00f3n de variables hidrometeorol\u00f3gicas y fisiogr\u00e1ficas adicionales permiti\u00f3 reducir los errores de estimaci\u00f3n entre un 10,8 % y un 15,8 % respecto a modelos basados \u00fanicamente en el \u00e1rea de drenaje. Los modelos seleccionados alcanzaron eficiencias Kling-Gupta (KGE) entre 0,869 y 0,919.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Estos hallazgos destacan la importancia de comprender qu\u00e9 caracter\u00edsticas permiten transferir conocimiento hidrol\u00f3gico entre cuencas andinas. Como siguiente etapa, proponemos integrar bases de datos regionales como CAMELS-COL con t\u00e9cnicas de aprendizaje autom\u00e1tico (Machine Learning), buscando identificar relaciones no lineales entre los atributos de las cuencas y su respuesta hidrol\u00f3gica, as\u00ed como evaluar su capacidad de generalizaci\u00f3n en territorios no instrumentados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de la estimaci\u00f3n de crecientes, estas metodolog\u00edas ofrecen oportunidades para fortalecer la evaluaci\u00f3n de amenazas hidrol\u00f3gicas, la gesti\u00f3n del riesgo de desastres, los estudios de adaptaci\u00f3n al cambio clim\u00e1tico y la educaci\u00f3n ambiental, reconociendo las incertidumbres propias de las predicciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Esta articulaci\u00f3n entre investigaci\u00f3n y formaci\u00f3n se alinea con los prop\u00f3sitos de la Ley 2427 de 2024 de Colombia, orientada a fortalecer la ense\u00f1anza sobre sostenibilidad ambiental, cambio clim\u00e1tico y gesti\u00f3n del riesgo de desastres. En este contexto, la Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Civil de la Universidad del Cauca impulsa la transferencia de estos conocimientos mediante espacios acad\u00e9micos de pregrado y posgrado, particularmente la asignatura&nbsp;<strong><em>Evaluaci\u00f3n de la Amenaza por Inundaci\u00f3n y Avenida Torrencial<\/em><\/strong>, vinculando la investigaci\u00f3n cient\u00edfica con la formaci\u00f3n de profesionales comprometidos con los desaf\u00edos ambientales y territoriales de los Andes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Agredo-Campuzano, O. F., &amp; Bola\u00f1os-Rodr\u00edguez, A. M. (2026).\u00a0Hydrological controls on peak-flow generation in ungauged tropical Andean basins: A regional Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) assessment in Cauca, Colombia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 67, 103763. <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ejrh.2026.103763\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ejrh.2026.103763<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*Profesores asistentes, Departamento de Hidr\u00e1ulica, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda Civil, Campus Tulc\u00e1n, Universidad del Cauca, Popay\u00e1n, Cauca, Colombia<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Por Oscar Felipe Agredo-Campuzano* y Andrea Marcela Bola\u00f1os-Rodr\u00edguez* Los Andes tropicales presentan una notable diversidad clim\u00e1tica, topogr\u00e1fica e hidrol\u00f3gica que condiciona la generaci\u00f3n de crecientes. Sus fuertes pendientes, la variabilidad de las precipitaciones y la limitada disponibilidad de registros hidrom\u00e9tricos dificultan la estimaci\u00f3n de caudales m\u00e1ximos, informaci\u00f3n fundamental para el dise\u00f1o de infraestructura, la planificaci\u00f3n [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_front_end_style_editor":"no","ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[232,42],"class_list":["post-5061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-lecturas","tag-gis","tag-hidrologia","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u00bfQu\u00e9 controla las crecientes de los r\u00edos en los Andes colombianos? Evidencia desde el departamento del Cauca - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 controla las crecientes de los r\u00edos en los Andes colombianos? Evidencia desde el departamento del Cauca - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Por Oscar Felipe Agredo-Campuzano* y Andrea Marcela Bola\u00f1os-Rodr\u00edguez* Los Andes tropicales presentan una notable diversidad clim\u00e1tica, topogr\u00e1fica e hidrol\u00f3gica que condiciona la generaci\u00f3n de crecientes. Sus fuertes pendientes, la variabilidad de las precipitaciones y la limitada disponibilidad de registros hidrom\u00e9tricos dificultan la estimaci\u00f3n de caudales m\u00e1ximos, informaci\u00f3n fundamental para el dise\u00f1o de infraestructura, la planificaci\u00f3n [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-11-09T21:48:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-11-09T21:48:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F-1024x725.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"725\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"andex\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"andex\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/?p=5061#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/?p=5061\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"andex\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/502e4f38fe30f00d8b101cd988a956fb\"},\"headline\":\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 controla las crecientes de los r\u00edos en los Andes colombianos? Evidencia desde el departamento del Cauca\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-11-09T21:48:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-11-09T21:48:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/?p=5061\"},\"wordCount\":615,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/?p=5061#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/Imagen-F-1024x725.png\",\"keywords\":[\"GIS\",\"Hidrolog\u00eda\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Lecturas\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/?p=5061#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/?p=5061\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/?p=5061\",\"name\":\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 controla las crecientes de los r\u00edos en los Andes colombianos? 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Localizaci\u00f3n del departamento del Cauca en el suroccidente de Colombia y distribuci\u00f3n espacial las 86 estaciones meteorol\u00f3gicas y 38 estaciones hidrol\u00f3gicas. El mapa muestra la delimitaci\u00f3n de las 38 cuencas hidrogr\u00e1ficas que conforman el \u00e1rea de investigaci\u00f3n.\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/?p=5061#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.andex-rhp.org\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\u00bfQu\u00e9 controla las crecientes de los r\u00edos en los Andes colombianos? 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Evidencia desde el departamento del Cauca - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 controla las crecientes de los r\u00edos en los Andes colombianos? Evidencia desde el departamento del Cauca - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes","og_description":"Por Oscar Felipe Agredo-Campuzano* y Andrea Marcela Bola\u00f1os-Rodr\u00edguez* Los Andes tropicales presentan una notable diversidad clim\u00e1tica, topogr\u00e1fica e hidrol\u00f3gica que condiciona la generaci\u00f3n de crecientes. Sus fuertes pendientes, la variabilidad de las precipitaciones y la limitada disponibilidad de registros hidrom\u00e9tricos dificultan la estimaci\u00f3n de caudales m\u00e1ximos, informaci\u00f3n fundamental para el dise\u00f1o de infraestructura, la planificaci\u00f3n [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061","og_site_name":"Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes","article_published_time":"2026-11-09T21:48:40+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-11-09T21:48:41+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":725,"url":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F-1024x725.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"andex","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"andex","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061"},"author":{"name":"andex","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/#\/schema\/person\/502e4f38fe30f00d8b101cd988a956fb"},"headline":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 controla las crecientes de los r\u00edos en los Andes colombianos? Evidencia desde el departamento del Cauca","datePublished":"2026-11-09T21:48:40+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-09T21:48:41+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061"},"wordCount":615,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F-1024x725.png","keywords":["GIS","Hidrolog\u00eda"],"articleSection":["Lecturas"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061","url":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061","name":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 controla las crecientes de los r\u00edos en los Andes colombianos? Evidencia desde el departamento del Cauca - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F-1024x725.png","datePublished":"2026-11-09T21:48:40+00:00","dateModified":"2026-11-09T21:48:41+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Imagen-F.png","width":1350,"height":956,"caption":"Figura 1. Localizaci\u00f3n del departamento del Cauca en el suroccidente de Colombia y distribuci\u00f3n espacial las 86 estaciones meteorol\u00f3gicas y 38 estaciones hidrol\u00f3gicas. El mapa muestra la delimitaci\u00f3n de las 38 cuencas hidrogr\u00e1ficas que conforman el \u00e1rea de investigaci\u00f3n."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5061#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 controla las crecientes de los r\u00edos en los Andes colombianos? 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