{"id":5006,"date":"2026-07-28T16:44:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T16:44:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5006"},"modified":"2026-07-28T16:44:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T16:44:11","slug":"el-nino-no-cuenta-la-misma-historia-en-todos-los-rios-del-peru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5006","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o no cuenta la misma historia en todos los r\u00edos del Per\u00fa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Por Harold Llauca*\/<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Numerosos estudios han mostrado c\u00f3mo El Ni\u00f1o y La Ni\u00f1a modifican los patrones de precipitaci\u00f3n en el Per\u00fa. Sin embargo, comprender c\u00f3mo esas anomal\u00edas se reflejan en el caudal de los r\u00edos es igualmente importante. La lluvia es el punto de partida, pero el caudal representa la respuesta integrada de una cuenca: incorpora procesos como la infiltraci\u00f3n, el almacenamiento y la liberaci\u00f3n gradual del agua. Observar los r\u00edos permite entender c\u00f3mo la variabilidad clim\u00e1tica se traduce en cambios en la disponibilidad de agua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Con esta mirada, analizamos la respuesta hidrol\u00f3gica de 44 cuencas de las vertientes del Pac\u00edfico, Amazonas y Titicaca entre 1981 y 2024. Combinamos observaciones de caudal, simulaciones hidrol\u00f3gicas e \u00edndices clim\u00e1ticos para evaluar la respuesta de los r\u00edos peruanos frente a las dos fases del fen\u00f3meno El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Oscilaci\u00f3n del Sur (ENSO): El Ni\u00f1o y La Ni\u00f1a. El an\u00e1lisis permiti\u00f3 identificar patrones regionales, diferencias estacionales y distintos tiempos de respuesta entre la se\u00f1al clim\u00e1tica del oc\u00e9ano y el comportamiento de los r\u00edos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los resultados revelan un Per\u00fa hidrol\u00f3gicamente diverso. En la costa norte, cuencas como Tumbes, Chira, Piura y Lambayeque responden con rapidez al calentamiento del Pac\u00edfico oriental. Durante El Ni\u00f1o, estas cuencas registran incrementos importantes de caudal. En contraste, en otras regiones, particularmente en los Andes, predominan relaciones con la variabilidad del Pac\u00edfico central, donde El Ni\u00f1o se asocia generalmente con menores caudales. La Ni\u00f1a, por su parte, tiende a favorecer mayores caudales en diversas cuencas andinas y amaz\u00f3nicas. Una misma fase de ENSO puede, por tanto, dejar huellas hidrol\u00f3gicas muy distintas en el territorio peruano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las diferencias no son solo geogr\u00e1ficas. Los r\u00edos tambi\u00e9n responden a distintos ritmos. En la costa norte, la relaci\u00f3n con las anomal\u00edas del Pac\u00edfico oriental se concentra en los primeros meses. Hacia los Andes y la Amazon\u00eda, las se\u00f1ales pueden extenderse hasta aproximadamente 12 meses y mostrar respuestas m\u00e1s persistentes. Parte de esta persistencia puede asociarse a la memoria hidrol\u00f3gica de las cuencas y a procesos de almacenamiento que aten\u00faan y redistribuyen la se\u00f1al clim\u00e1tica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estos patrones muestran que hablar de los efectos de El Ni\u00f1o y La Ni\u00f1a sobre los r\u00edos del Per\u00fa exige reconocer la diversidad hidroclim\u00e1tica del pa\u00eds. No todas las cuencas responden con igual intensidad o rapidez, ni est\u00e1n vinculadas a la misma regi\u00f3n del oc\u00e9ano Pac\u00edfico. Identificar estas diferencias abre oportunidades para incorporar mejor la informaci\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica en el monitoreo y los pron\u00f3sticos hidrol\u00f3gicos, as\u00ed como en la planificaci\u00f3n de los recursos h\u00eddricos y la gesti\u00f3n del riesgo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En un pa\u00eds atravesado por los Andes, donde el agua se distribuye de manera profundamente desigual, comprender c\u00f3mo las se\u00f1ales del oc\u00e9ano terminan expres\u00e1ndose en nuestros r\u00edos es m\u00e1s que una pregunta cient\u00edfica. Es un paso necesario para anticiparnos a la variabilidad clim\u00e1tica y avanzar hacia una gesti\u00f3n del agua basada en el conocimiento de cada territorio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

*National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru, Lima, Peru;b Departamento de Ingenieria Civil y Ambiental, Universidad de Ingenieria y Tecnologia \u2013 UTEC, Lima, Peru;c Doctoral Program in Water Resources, Graduate School, National Agrarian University La Molina, Lima, Peru<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

1<\/sup>Llauca, H., & Lavado-Casimiro, W. (2026). Hydrological responses to ENSO variability across Peruvian catchments.\u00a0Hydrological Sciences Journal<\/em>, 1\u201315. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/02626667.2026.2674775<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Por Harold Llauca*\/ Numerosos estudios han mostrado c\u00f3mo El Ni\u00f1o y La Ni\u00f1a modifican los patrones de precipitaci\u00f3n en el Per\u00fa. Sin embargo, comprender c\u00f3mo esas anomal\u00edas se reflejan en el caudal de los r\u00edos es igualmente importante. La lluvia es el punto de partida, pero el caudal representa la respuesta integrada de una cuenca: […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[55,20,155],"class_list":["post-5006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-lecturas","tag-el-nino","tag-peru","tag-rios","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nEl Ni\u00f1o no cuenta la misma historia en todos los r\u00edos del Per\u00fa - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=5006\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Ni\u00f1o no cuenta la misma historia en todos los r\u00edos del Per\u00fa - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Por Harold Llauca*\/ Numerosos estudios han mostrado c\u00f3mo El Ni\u00f1o y La Ni\u00f1a modifican los patrones de precipitaci\u00f3n en el Per\u00fa. Sin embargo, comprender c\u00f3mo esas anomal\u00edas se reflejan en el caudal de los r\u00edos es igualmente importante. 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