{"id":4865,"date":"2026-04-13T14:43:48","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T14:43:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=4865"},"modified":"2026-04-13T14:43:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T14:43:52","slug":"cuando-se-convertiran-las-sequias-meteorologicas-en-la-nueva-condicion-climatica-normal-en-chile-central-sur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=4865","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfCu\u00e1ndo se convertir\u00e1n las sequ\u00edas meteorol\u00f3gicas en la nueva condici\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica normal en Chile Central-Sur?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Por Jorge Gironas*\/<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El cambio clim\u00e1tico est\u00e1 intensificando el ciclo hidrol\u00f3gico y aumentando la frecuencia, duraci\u00f3n y severidad de eventos de sequ\u00eda en diversas regiones del mundo. En la zona centro-sur de Chile (29\u00b0S -42\u00b0S), desde el a\u00f1o 2010 se han manifestado condiciones de sequ\u00eda meteorol\u00f3gica persistentes, com\u00fanmente conocida como la Megasequ\u00eda de Chile. Este fen\u00f3meno ha provocado una reducci\u00f3n entre 20% y 40% la precipitaci\u00f3n anual, generando fuertes impactos en el manejo y gesti\u00f3n de los recursos h\u00eddricos en el pa\u00eds. Cabe resaltar que, en esta zona se localizan al menos 10 ciudades que superan los 150,000 habitantes y que en conjunto concentran el 63% de la poblaci\u00f3n de Chile.En este contexto, una pregunta clave en la planificaci\u00f3n h\u00eddrica futura es \u00bfCu\u00e1ndo los cambios inducidos por el clima dejar\u00e1n de ser anomal\u00edas para transformarse en una nueva normalidad clim\u00e1tica? Una manera de abordar este interrogante es mediante el concepto del Tiempo de Emergencia (ToE, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s). El ToE se define como el momento en que la se\u00f1al del cambio clim\u00e1tico se vuelve claramente distinguible de la variabilidad natural del clima. Este enfoque permite identificar un horizonte temporal en el que los cambios proyectados superan el rango definido como normal clim\u00e1tica.Para estimar el comportamiento futuro de las sequ\u00edas en la zona de estudio, se utilizaron proyecciones clim\u00e1ticas de 30 modelos de clima global de CMIP6, forzados bajo los escenarios SSP2-4.5 y SSP5-8.5. Posteriormente, se estim\u00f3 el \u00cdndice Estandarizado de Precipitaci\u00f3n-Evapotranspiraci\u00f3n (SPEI) a escala anual (SPEI-12). El periodo 1979-2014 fue utilizado como referencia para comparar las condiciones de sequ\u00eda futuras.Los resultados obtenidos muestran que, bajo ambos escenarios de emisiones, las condiciones de sequ\u00eda futura ser\u00e1n cada vez m\u00e1s predominantes, reflejando una transici\u00f3n progresiva hacia condiciones m\u00e1s \u00e1ridas en el territorio. Las proyecciones clim\u00e1ticas indican condiciones m\u00e1s c\u00e1lidas y secos (i.e., una disminuci\u00f3n generalizada de las precipitaciones y un aumento sostenido de la temperatura en toda la regi\u00f3n). En el escenario SSP5-8.5, las precipitaciones podr\u00edan disminuir hasta 30\u201335% hacia fines de siglo en parte de la zona central, mientras que la temperatura media anual podr\u00eda aumentar cerca de 3\u00b0C en varias ciudades localizadas en el valle central. Estos cambios intensifican el d\u00e9ficit h\u00eddrico, aumentando la presi\u00f3n por la b\u00fasqueda de nuevas alternativas de abastecimiento de agua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En cuanto al ToE de la sequ\u00eda, se identifica que las sequ\u00edas moderadas (\u22121.50 \u2264 SPEI-12Dec \u2264 \u22121.04) podr\u00edan convertirse en una condici\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica predominante entre 2030 y 2040 en gran parte del centro-sur de Chile. Para condiciones de sequ\u00edas severas (\u22122.05 \u2264 SPEI-12Dec \u2264 \u22121.50), el ToE ocurre entre 2040 y 2050. Sin embargo, bajo condiciones del escenario SSP5-8.5, el ToE puede adelantarse en almenos una d\u00e9cada. El patr\u00f3n espacial encontrado muestra una progresi\u00f3n del ToE de la sequ\u00eda de norte a sur y de costa a cordillera (Figura 1). Estos resultados sugieren que, durante las pr\u00f3ximas d\u00e9cadas, las sequ\u00edas dejar\u00e1n de ser eventos excepcionales para convertirse en una caracter\u00edstica estructural del clima de la zona centro sur de Chile.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Figura
Figura 1. Distribuci\u00f3n especial del ToE, representado por el percentil 50 de los GCMs, para diferentes condiciones de sequ\u00eda bajo los escenarios SSP2\u20134.5 y SSP5\u20138.5.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

*Departamento de Ingenier\u00eda Hidr\u00e1ulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Chile, Santiago, Chile;b Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable, Santiago, Chile;c Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Chile, Santiago, Chile;d Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n para la Gesti\u00f3n Integrada del Riesgo de Desastre, Pontificia Universidad Cat\u00f3lica de Chile, Santiago, Chile<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

1<\/sup>Gonz\u00e1lez-Leiva, F., Giron\u00e1s, J., Chadwick, C., Meza, F., and Vicu\u00f1a, S. (2026). When will\u00a0meteorological droughts become the new normal climatic condition in Central-Southern Chile? Hydrological Sciences Journal.\u00a0https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/02626667.2026.2625979<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Por Jorge Gironas*\/ El cambio clim\u00e1tico est\u00e1 intensificando el ciclo hidrol\u00f3gico y aumentando la frecuencia, duraci\u00f3n y severidad de eventos de sequ\u00eda en diversas regiones del mundo. En la zona centro-sur de Chile (29\u00b0S -42\u00b0S), desde el a\u00f1o 2010 se han manifestado condiciones de sequ\u00eda meteorol\u00f3gica persistentes, com\u00fanmente conocida como la Megasequ\u00eda de Chile. Este […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[37,207,174],"class_list":["post-4865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-lecturas","tag-chile","tag-hidrologico","tag-megasequia","entry"],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfCu\u00e1ndo se convertir\u00e1n las sequ\u00edas meteorol\u00f3gicas en la nueva condici\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica normal en Chile Central-Sur? - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=4865\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfCu\u00e1ndo se convertir\u00e1n las sequ\u00edas meteorol\u00f3gicas en la nueva condici\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica normal en Chile Central-Sur? - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Por Jorge Gironas*\/ El cambio clim\u00e1tico est\u00e1 intensificando el ciclo hidrol\u00f3gico y aumentando la frecuencia, duraci\u00f3n y severidad de eventos de sequ\u00eda en diversas regiones del mundo. 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Distribuci\u00f3n especial del ToE, representado por el percentil 50 de los GCMs, para diferentes condiciones de sequ\u00eda bajo los escenarios SSP2\u20134.5 y SSP5\u20138.5."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=4865#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"\u00bfCu\u00e1ndo se convertir\u00e1n las sequ\u00edas meteorol\u00f3gicas en la nueva condici\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica normal en Chile Central-Sur?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/","name":"Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes","description":"ANDEX","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/#organization","name":"Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes","url":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/cropped-cropped-logo_ANDEX_color_trans1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/cropped-cropped-logo_ANDEX_color_trans1.png","width":555,"height":444,"caption":"Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/#\/schema\/person\/502e4f38fe30f00d8b101cd988a956fb","name":"andex","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/23494ed4720f39176481de38bcdec2a13011e1321adeb3faa91d0e623a2a8587?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/23494ed4720f39176481de38bcdec2a13011e1321adeb3faa91d0e623a2a8587?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"andex"},"url":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?author=2"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4865","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4865"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4865\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4869,"href":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4865\/revisions\/4869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}