{"id":4315,"date":"2024-12-04T19:45:09","date_gmt":"2024-12-04T19:45:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=4315"},"modified":"2024-12-04T19:45:10","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T19:45:10","slug":"intensas-lluvias-precoces-en-el-altiplano","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=4315","title":{"rendered":"Intensas\u00a0lluvias precoces en el Altiplano"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Por Ren\u00e9 Garreaud*\/<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El “invierno altipl\u00e1nico” comenz\u00f3 de manera intensa y algo prematura a mediados de Noviembre, con copiosas precipitaciones en el sector Boliviano y Peruano de los Andes centrales<\/strong>, como lo muestra el siguiente mapa con la acumulaci\u00f3n entre el 20-29 Nov 2024 (datos IMERG V07). Lamentablemente, esto ha ocasionado afectaciones negativas en varios departamentos de Bolivia.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

En las tardes de este periodo las tormentas se han extendido hasta el borde Chileno del Altiplano, como lo muestra la imagen adjunta de comienzos de la semana pasada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Precipitaciones sobre lo normal son esperables bajo “La Ni\u00f1a” aunque a\u00fan seguimos a la espera de la declaraci\u00f3n oficial<\/a> de esta condici\u00f3n. Desde un punto de vista m\u00e1s local, las fuertes precipitaciones sobre el Altiplano son atribuibles a la activaci\u00f3n de la Alta de Bolivia (AB),<\/strong> produciendo vientos del este sobre los Andes centrales que pueden transportar aire h\u00famedo desde el interior del continente. Esta circulaci\u00f3n en la troposfera media y alta se esquematiza y visualiza en las figuras anteriores, pero es m\u00e1s evidente en los an\u00e1lisis CDAS de la NOAA<\/a> que se reproduce a continuaci\u00f3n, donde los paneles superiores son el promedio 23-29 Nov 2024 y los inferiores son las anomal\u00edas (diferencia con la climatolog\u00eda):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Aqu\u00ed es evidente que la AB ha estado m\u00e1s intensa que el promedio y situada levemente al sur de su posici\u00f3n habitual, causando vientos del este sobre los Andes centrales. Por otro lado, el chorro del norte en niveles bajos (LLJ) es m\u00e1s o menos normal sobre Bolivia, pero bastante m\u00e1s intenso sobre el sur de Brasil y Paraguay. Eso parece haber alimentado las fuertes tormentas sobre el norte de Argentina<\/a> los d\u00edas anteriores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Muchos de los trabajos sobre el clima estival de Sudam\u00e9rica indican que la AB es producto de la liberaci\u00f3n de calor latente sobre el interior del continente y la SACZ, citando el paper seminal de Lenters & Cook<\/a> (1997). Eso es correcto considerando el promedio estacional, pero parece no ocurrir en este inicio de temporada. Como se aprecia en los mapas de precipitaci\u00f3n, las precipitaciones han sido deficitarias sobre la Amazonia, el sur de Brasil y la SACZ<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 estar\u00e1 causando esta “Alta de Bolivia en esteroides”?<\/strong> Una posible explicaci\u00f3n es el forzamiento originado en el Pacifico tropical viajando como una onda de Rossby como lo sugiere la alternancia de n\u00facleos de positivos (bajas) y negativos (altas presiones) de anomal\u00edas de la funci\u00f3n corriente en la figura siguiente. El \u00faltimo nodo de la cadena justamente corresponde a la AB. (Esto es muy especulativo y probablemente alguien puede aportar m\u00e1s antecedentes).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de su origen, ser\u00eda muy interesante tener un producto operacional de diagn\u00f3stico y pron\u00f3stico de la AB<\/strong>\u00a0que permita hacer un seguimiento de su posici\u00f3n e intensidad, de la cual podemos inferir algunos aspectos de la preocupaci\u00f3n sobre los Andes centrales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

*Departamento de Geof\u00edsica, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile & Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

LENTERS, J. D., and K. H. COOK. \u201cOn the Origin of the Bolivian High and Related Circulation Features of the South American Climate.\u201d Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences<\/em>, vol. 54, no. 5, 1997, pp. 656\u201377, 2.0.CO;2″>https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/1520-0469(1997)054<0656:OTOOTB>2.0.CO;2<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Por Ren\u00e9 Garreaud*\/ El “invierno altipl\u00e1nico” comenz\u00f3 de manera intensa y algo prematura a mediados de Noviembre, con copiosas precipitaciones en el sector Boliviano y Peruano de los Andes centrales, como lo muestra el siguiente mapa con la acumulaci\u00f3n entre el 20-29 Nov 2024 (datos IMERG V07). Lamentablemente, esto ha ocasionado afectaciones negativas en varios departamentos de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[75,37,20,38],"class_list":["post-4315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-lecturas","tag-altiplano","tag-chile","tag-peru","tag-precipitacion","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nIntensas\u00a0lluvias precoces en el Altiplano - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=4315\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Intensas\u00a0lluvias precoces en el Altiplano - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Por Ren\u00e9 Garreaud*\/ El “invierno altipl\u00e1nico” comenz\u00f3 de manera intensa y algo prematura a mediados de Noviembre, con copiosas precipitaciones en el sector Boliviano y Peruano de los Andes centrales, como lo muestra el siguiente mapa con la acumulaci\u00f3n entre el 20-29 Nov 2024 (datos IMERG V07). 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