{"id":229,"date":"2016-10-25T17:37:53","date_gmt":"2016-10-25T17:37:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lawyer2.mythemecloud.io\/?p=229"},"modified":"2024-09-26T13:48:54","modified_gmt":"2024-09-26T13:48:54","slug":"conubia-nostra-per-inceptos-himenaeos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=229","title":{"rendered":"Comunicando el cambio clim\u00e1tico regional: el caso de una sequ\u00eda en Suram\u00e9rica"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Por Paola A. Arias* \/<\/h5>\n

Durante 2019-2023, el centro de Suram\u00e9rica (Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay) experiment\u00f3 una sequ\u00eda de grandes proporciones. En particular, durante inicios del verano austral 2022-2023, el estr\u00e9s h\u00eddrico se vio reforzado por la ocurrencia de varias olas de calor consecutivas.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

El estudio Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America1<\/sup> <\/em>se enfoc\u00f3 en analizar si la sequ\u00eda meteorol\u00f3gica ocurrida durante el periodo octubre a diciembre (OND) de 2022 se explica mediante el forzamiento antropog\u00e9nico debido al aumento en la concentraci\u00f3n atmosf\u00e9rica de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI). Para ello, consideramos informaci\u00f3n de diferentes bases de datos para definir el evento de sequ\u00eda a partir del \u00cdndice Estandarizado de Precipitaci\u00f3n (SPI).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Nuestros resultados muestran que el d\u00e9ficit de precipitaci\u00f3n registrado durante OND 2022 tiene un per\u00edodo de retorno de 20 a\u00f1os. Para identificar si este d\u00e9ficit puede explicarse por el forzamiento antr\u00f3pico de GEI, analizamos 60 simulaciones provenientes de modelos clim\u00e1ticos globales (incluyendo de alta resoluci\u00f3n) y regionales, forzados bajo diferentes escenarios de GEI.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

Los hallazgos sugieren que dicho forzamiento no explica el d\u00e9ficit de precipitaci\u00f3n en Suram\u00e9rica central, sino que esta reducci\u00f3n es inducida por los efectos del evento La Ni\u00f1a 2022-2023. Sin embargo, el forzamiento antropog\u00e9nico debido a GEI s\u00ed explica los aumentos de temperatura en la regi\u00f3n, as\u00ed como las olas de calor registradas durante el periodo OND 2022 (ver Rivera et al. (2023)<\/a> para un estudio de atribuci\u00f3n de estas olas de calor), conllevando a una exacerbaci\u00f3n de la sequ\u00eda.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Esto muestra un aspecto fundamental del cambio clim\u00e1tico regional: la interacci\u00f3n entre factores antropog\u00e9nicos y la variabilidad clim\u00e1tica.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Aunque no es raro llegar a este tipo de hallazgos cuando se trata de la atribuci\u00f3n de sequ\u00edas a escala regional, emerge un gran reto en la comunicaci\u00f3n del cambio clim\u00e1tico regional ante un p\u00fablico no especializado. Ese fue el caso de nuestro estudio. Durante la rueda de prensa citada para la divulgaci\u00f3n de nuestros resultados, algunas de las preguntas estuvieron orientadas a establecer de forma binaria (s\u00ed o no) si la sequ\u00eda (y sus impactos) se deben a la actividad humana causante del incremento de GEI en la atm\u00f3sfera.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mi sensaci\u00f3n durante esta rueda de prensa, as\u00ed como en otros espacios de divulgaci\u00f3n en los que he participado, es que de alguna manera existe \u201cdecepci\u00f3n\u201d cuando los resultados de una investigaci\u00f3n no conllevan a establecer que el forzamiento antropog\u00e9nico de GEI (o el cambio clim\u00e1tico, como muchas veces se nombra) es la causa dominante de determinado evento extremo. De alguna manera, es como si se le \u201crestara\u201d gravedad al evento de an\u00e1lisis cuando \u00e9ste es explicado total o parcialmente por otros elementos como la variabilidad clim\u00e1tica.<\/span><\/p>\n

Si bien este estudio no se enfoca directamente en los Andes, es posible conducir estudios de atribuci\u00f3n para la regi\u00f3n andina que conlleven a resultados similares, lo que nos lleva a reflexionar sobre las metodolog\u00edas que usamos para la atribuci\u00f3n del cambio clim\u00e1tico regional (por ejemplo, m\u00e9todos probabil\u00edsticos vs. storylines), pero que tambi\u00e9n nos pone en la tarea de repensar las formas en las que comunicamos la ciencia que desarrollamos.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

*Profesora Titular, Escuela Ambiental, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad de Antioquia, Medell\u00edn, Colombia. paola.arias@udea.edu.co<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1<\/sup> <\/strong>Arias, P. A., Rivera, J. A., S\u00f6rensson, A. A., Zachariah, M., Barnes, C., Philip, S., Kew, S., Vautard, R., Koren, G., Pinto, I., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Raju, E., Li, S., Yang, W., Vecchi, G. A., & Otto, F. E. L. (2023). Interplay between climate change and climate variability: The 2022 drought in Central South America. Climatic Change, 177<\/em>(6). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-023-03664-4<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Por Paola A. Arias* \/ Durante 2019-2023, el centro de Suram\u00e9rica (Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay) experiment\u00f3 una sequ\u00eda de grandes proporciones. En particular, durante inicios del verano austral 2022-2023, el estr\u00e9s h\u00eddrico se vio reforzado por la ocurrencia de varias olas de calor consecutivas. El estudio Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1557,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"0","ocean_second_sidebar":"0","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"0","ocean_custom_header_template":"0","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"0","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"0","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"off","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[25,26,23,10,24],"class_list":["post-229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lecturas","tag-argentina","tag-bolivia","tag-cambio-climatico","tag-lecturas","tag-sequia","entry","has-media"],"yoast_head":"\nComunicando el cambio clim\u00e1tico regional: el caso de una sequ\u00eda en Suram\u00e9rica - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.andex-rhp.org\/?p=229\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Comunicando el cambio clim\u00e1tico regional: el caso de una sequ\u00eda en Suram\u00e9rica - Programa Hidroclim\u00e1tico Regional para los Andes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Por Paola A. 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